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Bitcoin before the Fed: the $80K zone is still holding

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Hi, it's Chris. Every Monday, I look at Bitcoin's weekly candle before I look at anything else. One day doesn't tell me much. A full week does. Here's what I saw, with the numbers and my levels. No signals, just my method, so you can learn to build your own.

The week in numbers

Weekly close: $80,405 down 2.1%

High $84,863 (Wednesday) · Low $79,278 (Saturday) · ETH $2,329 (down 3.4%) · US 10-year 4.99%

Bitcoin opened the week around $82,100. It pushed up to $84,863 on Wednesday, then got sent back down on Thursday with a 3.2% red day. On Saturday it dipped to $79,278 before closing Sunday at $80,405.

Ethereum did worse: $2,329, down 3.4% on the week. That fits what I keep telling you: when Bitcoin hesitates, the rest rarely does better. Bitcoin dominance sits around 58.5% on CoinGecko.

What the weekly candle tells me

  • A long upper wick. Price went looking for $85,000 and couldn't stay there. Sellers showed up. For me, the $84,800 to $84,900 zone is now the first resistance to watch.

  • A close below the open. The candle is red and finishes near the bottom of its range. It's not a collapse, but buyers didn't win the week.

  • A floor tested twice. The week before, after the PPI, Bitcoin had already slipped briefly under $80,000. This week it tagged $79,278 and closed above. The $79,300 to $80,000 zone is my key support.

My levels for the week

Resistance: $84,800 to $84,900 (this week's high)

Pivot: $82,100 (last week's open)

Support: $79,300 to $80,000 (this week's low and the round number)

My read is simple. As long as weekly closes stay above the $79,300 zone, I treat the floor as holding and Bitcoin as stuck in its range, below $100,000. A clean weekly close under it would change my read. On the other side, I'll only talk about a recovery with a move back above $82,100, then a real test of $85,000. In between, the middle of a range is where I do the least.

What I can't see and why

Last week I told you I watch the US 10-year yield like a pressure gauge. It eased back to 4.99%, from 5.10% the Friday before. So the pressure came off a little, and Bitcoin still fell. I'm not going to tell you a neat story to explain it. The gauge doesn't drive price every single week, and that's exactly why I read the chart first and the context second.

I also don't see a confirmed break, in either direction. No close under support, no reclaim of the pivot. When I don't see anything clear, I say so, and I don't invent a signal.

The week ahead

All times New York (ET).

  • Wednesday, October 28, 2:00 pm: Fed decision. The market expects a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 pm.

  • Thursday, October 29, 8:30 am: Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE inflation. The ECB also decides that day.

  • Thursday after the close: Coinbase and Strategy Q3 earnings.

  • Friday, October 30, 8:30 am: Employment Cost Index.

A Fed week is often a week where price moves fast, both ways. I'm not trying to guess the decision. I'm watching where the weekly candle closes against my levels on Sunday night.

This article is educational content, not financial advice. Trading crypto carries a high risk of loss. Past performance, including mine, does not guarantee future results. Always do your own analysis. Data sources: Investing.com (BTC, ETH, 10-year yield, closes of October 25, 2026), CoinGecko (dominance), Kiplinger and Newsquawk (calendar).

Chris, ChartLab