Chart Lab

Bitcoin: October closed red, and that's what I was waiting for

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Hey, it's Chris. This Monday there are two candles to read instead of one: the October monthly candle and the weekly candle. Here are the numbers, my read and my levels. Then, like every week, where ChartLab stands. No signals, just my method, so you can learn to build yours.

Part 1: the market

The October monthly close

October close: $77,424 or -7.3%

Open $83,556 · High $87,249 (Oct 2) · Low $76,141 (Oct 30)

October opened at $83,556, pushed up to $87,249 on the 2nd, then spent the rest of the month going down. The low, $76,141, printed on the 30th, the day of the Binance hack. The candle closed at $77,424, well below its open. That's the worst October since 2014.

The weekly close

Weekly close: $78,231 or -2.3%

Open $80,053 · High $81,890 (Thursday) · Low $76,141 (Friday) · ETH $2,267 (-2.5%) · US 10-year yield 4.93%

The week opened near $80,050. It tagged $81,890 on Thursday, right after the Fed, then got sent down to $76,141 on Friday. On Sunday, price took back a bit more than $800 to close at $78,231. Ethereum followed the same path, a little weaker. Bitcoin dominance rose during the month, to about 59.8% on October 31: when the market drops, money tends to stay in Bitcoin.

My read: the quarterly PO3

This is my opinion, not a forecast. I read the quarter with a PO3 pattern: accumulation, manipulation, distribution. Q4 opened on October 1 at $83,556. For this pattern to work in our favor, I wanted a red October that traded below the quarterly open. Done: October closed 7.3% below its open.

In this pattern, here's how I see what comes next:

  • November: leaning bullish.

  • Until Christmas: sideways.

  • Right before the December 31 close: a drop, until January 2 or 3.

  • Then: a slow recovery.

To me, that's what happens every year end. But a pattern is only a pattern: the market has no obligation to follow it, and I can be wrong. My levels are what tell me if the read holds.

My levels for the week

Resistance: $81,890 (last week's high)

Pivot: $80,050 (last week's open, and the $80K round number)

Support: $76,141 (the low of the week and of the month)

My rule is simple. As long as closes hold above $76,141, I keep my PO3 read. A clean weekly close below that floor would invalidate it, and I'd tell you. On the upside, I'll only talk about a real move once price is back above $80,050, then $81,890. In between, the middle of a range is where I do the least.

This week's calendar

Times in New York (ET). The US moved back to standard time on November 1.

  • Monday, Nov 2, 10:00 a.m.: October ISM Manufacturing. Apple and Palantir earnings after the bell.

  • Tuesday, Nov 3: US midterm elections, results overnight. September JOLTS job openings. AMD earnings in the evening.

  • Wednesday, Nov 4, 8:15 a.m.: ADP private payrolls. 10:00 a.m.: ISM Services.

  • Friday, Nov 6, 8:30 a.m.: October jobs report. Consensus is about 62,000 jobs and unemployment near 4.2%.

An election and a jobs report in the same week can shake things up. I don't try to guess the outcomes. I watch where the weekly candle closes against my levels on Sunday night.

Part 2: where ChartLab stands

One thing at a time. Here's what moved this week, and what didn't.

What moved

  • ChartLab Play is out in beta on Android. It's a small game: you see a real Bitcoin, Ethereum or Solana chart from 2017 onward, you answer, then the app shows you what really happened. We're looking for 20 testers, free, first come, first served: chartlabtm.com/play. Your feedback decides what we fix first.

  • The Daily Brief held every day. A short read every day, as an Instagram and Facebook story, on TikTok and as a YouTube Short, with the voiceover back since October 27.

  • Three short Reels are ready. Under 20 second cuts of our stories (Mei, Mike) and of the Play release, scheduled from November 2 to 4.

What didn't move

  • The longer Reels that are already done ("Hustler Night Bus", "BTC vs Gold") still have no release date.

  • The "Seven People, One Chart" video is still waiting for sign off.

  • The daily "End of Year" story stopped on October 21 and hasn't restarted.

Nothing spectacular, on purpose. We finish one thing before starting the next.

This article is educational content, not investment advice. The PO3 read is Chris's personal opinion, not a forecast. Crypto trading carries a high risk of loss. Past performance, including mine, does not guarantee future results. Always do your own analysis. Data sources: Coinbase BTC-USD and ETH-USD (UTC daily candles, closes of November 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC), TokenPost (dominance on October 31), Mortgage News Daily (10-year yield, October 30 close), Bitcoin.com (October since 2014), crypto.news (calendar).

Chris, ChartLab